Value Inflation in Google Ads

The Google Ads report shows $400K in conversion value; the CRM closed $270K for the same period. That $130K gap isn't an export glitch — it's "value inflation": Smart Bidding optimizes toward a number that never existed in real revenue and overpays for clicks chasing conversions that were never truly expensive.

Before touching the bid strategy in an inherited account, Search Engine Journal argues, confirm what you're even counting. Small distortions — double-counted micro-conversions, stale value rules, a feed passing cart total instead of net order value — are invisible alone but together inflate reported account value by 20–40%. The full checklist is laid out by Search Engine Journal.

Five checks before you bid:

• Conversion weighting — primary goals tie to revenue only (purchases, qualified leads), not signups or video views;
• Attribution — data-driven, not an outdated last-click model;
• Duplicate tags — use Tag Diagnostics and GA4 DebugView to catch conversions firing twice;
• Reconcile to pipeline — 90 days of Ads value against actual closed revenue in the CRM;
• Cross-check in GA4 — compare Ads conversion claims with GA4 purchase events for the same campaigns.

After the cleanup, don't yank tROAS in one move: shift the target in 15–20% stages over 5–7 days and hold for two weeks, or the algorithm takes a shock and results dip. Clean data is half the optimization — budget flows to where the real money is, not to a pretty but invented metric.